"so when we come out of the recession we'll immediately be right back into supply shortages and inelastic demand"
I keep saying this. People are comparing this to 2008 when I think it's more like the early 70s. I'm struggling to think of a commodity where production capability has meaningfully responded to price signals over the past 4-6 quarters. Can you think of one?
Ebitda slight lower than you predicted and automated news like zacks reporting cleverly report an estimate miss and leave out all good news (like debt free, another monster dividend, sales for coke for thermal and overseas, buy backs) so uninformed retail buyers stay away.
(2)
Any update insight on which institutionals if any are currently accumulating?
(3)
Please give me some reasons *not* to even more load up (for a short term) on ARCH this morning. Short-term buy/sell is not my thing but this feels like a bet in a casino roulette with only black and no reds (but it still may be rigged for 0 like in Casablanca)
Coal Trader, a massive thank you for sharing your analysis. I made huge profits on the CEIX calls, used some proceeds to buy a nice cruise vacation this fall.
This deal really solidifies the forward curve analysis I lean on... meaning it justifies the futures pricing we're seeing in the market. Very bullish LONG TERM.
What is the nuclear fuel consumption increase and increase in the coming year?
Nuclear fuel consumption does not increase or decrease if the nuclear plant generates more energy. The fuel decays , even during plant maintenance like in France
The nuke plants take forever to build so it won’t be suddenly next year we have much higher demand.
So is the increase in uranium prices not just all speculation driven (or very very long term)?
More of interest would be those that can build the plants like Fluor and Bechtel and it looks like their share price is already anticipating. Those companies however make their money from change orders which typically means delays in delivery (so the longer building new nuke plants take, the more profit for them). And that would again not result in increased nuke fuel demand anytime soon
Yes, uranium price move is mostly speculation & long term fears of shortages. The problem is KAP & CCJ can supply the market for a long time by themselves, even if the bull market thesis plays out. So the uranium juniors probably never make money, or at best, the trade is way too early.
Fluor has partnered with NuCore to build their SMR’s - and part of the perks to the technology is rapid development & deployment.
"so when we come out of the recession we'll immediately be right back into supply shortages and inelastic demand"
I keep saying this. People are comparing this to 2008 when I think it's more like the early 70s. I'm struggling to think of a commodity where production capability has meaningfully responded to price signals over the past 4-6 quarters. Can you think of one?
In my next life, I hope I understand why WHC trades the way it does 🤔
(1)
So what is your pick on ARCH Q2 results?
Ebitda slight lower than you predicted and automated news like zacks reporting cleverly report an estimate miss and leave out all good news (like debt free, another monster dividend, sales for coke for thermal and overseas, buy backs) so uninformed retail buyers stay away.
(2)
Any update insight on which institutionals if any are currently accumulating?
(3)
Please give me some reasons *not* to even more load up (for a short term) on ARCH this morning. Short-term buy/sell is not my thing but this feels like a bet in a casino roulette with only black and no reds (but it still may be rigged for 0 like in Casablanca)
Ok, found the answer re (3) above: yes, it is rigged like in casablanco movie.
Fun fact is what happened with AMZN vs ARCH both about same share price around $130
AMZN’s EPS $0.10 , PE>100, 33% miss but raving reviews and 11% up
ARCH EPS $19.30, PE <2, 10% miss from an all high estimate but that is the review highlight so 11% down
I stick with your more useful and honest review and be patient!
Coal Trader, a massive thank you for sharing your analysis. I made huge profits on the CEIX calls, used some proceeds to buy a nice cruise vacation this fall.
Love it! Let's keep the winning streak going.
Love that Glencore Japan deal...$375...$👍🏼
This deal really solidifies the forward curve analysis I lean on... meaning it justifies the futures pricing we're seeing in the market. Very bullish LONG TERM.
What is the nuclear fuel consumption increase and increase in the coming year?
Nuclear fuel consumption does not increase or decrease if the nuclear plant generates more energy. The fuel decays , even during plant maintenance like in France
The nuke plants take forever to build so it won’t be suddenly next year we have much higher demand.
So is the increase in uranium prices not just all speculation driven (or very very long term)?
More of interest would be those that can build the plants like Fluor and Bechtel and it looks like their share price is already anticipating. Those companies however make their money from change orders which typically means delays in delivery (so the longer building new nuke plants take, the more profit for them). And that would again not result in increased nuke fuel demand anytime soon
Yes, uranium price move is mostly speculation & long term fears of shortages. The problem is KAP & CCJ can supply the market for a long time by themselves, even if the bull market thesis plays out. So the uranium juniors probably never make money, or at best, the trade is way too early.
Fluor has partnered with NuCore to build their SMR’s - and part of the perks to the technology is rapid development & deployment.