Really insightful piece. This really helps me frame how the demand situation looks in China. Looking forward to see your follow up and especially a similar piece on India
Or am I missing something else? Any thoughts on this? Big news or rather a storm in a glass of water (stocks seem to be coming back down already at the moment :)? And depending on how this pans out, who might be the biggest winners or loosers?
I'd say storm in a glass. The world is again lining up to prevent cheap Chinese steel from hitting their shores, you see it in Brazil and Europe. Everyone is trying to protect their own steel sectors. Nobody can compete outright with the Chinese steel industry.
I am not bullish on the metals & mining stocks generally. We need to see the US Dollar reverse hard for an uplift there I think.
This activist crap is complete short-termism. They wanted their buybacks now instead of potentially transforming the long-term intrinsic value of the company. If you have the opportunity to double FCF, diversify your asset base, and buy something likely around 3x FCF, you should do it all day long. If WHC gets these mines for US$3.5 B or less, the shares will probably double a year later.
Thank you! The follow up will help in determining how much of this added capacity will require imports and what type of imports in terms of high CV or low CV thermal coal, or Indonesian spec or Newcastle spec.
Very good analysis.....I will keep my "coal horses" in their stable and well fed. Amazing how, we, the part of the lucky 1.4 billion think the rest of the world should limit their energy usage so we can meet some made up climate goal......welcome to Rome.
Really insightful piece. This really helps me frame how the demand situation looks in China. Looking forward to see your follow up and especially a similar piece on India
Speaking of China:
Almost all metal prices down today, yet nearly all (base) metals and mining related stocks in Europe up big. I'm guessing because of this news:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/eu-plans-anti-subsidy-probe-into-chinese-steelmakers-ft-2023-10-10/
Or am I missing something else? Any thoughts on this? Big news or rather a storm in a glass of water (stocks seem to be coming back down already at the moment :)? And depending on how this pans out, who might be the biggest winners or loosers?
I'd say storm in a glass. The world is again lining up to prevent cheap Chinese steel from hitting their shores, you see it in Brazil and Europe. Everyone is trying to protect their own steel sectors. Nobody can compete outright with the Chinese steel industry.
I am not bullish on the metals & mining stocks generally. We need to see the US Dollar reverse hard for an uplift there I think.
Oops, apparently I missed a few "dovish" fed commentaries. My, bad :)
Great write up, I'll have to read this a few times to digest.
Curious what you think of this activist regarding WHC. https://www.fairshareholderreturns.com.au/
Oops, apparently I missed a few "dovish" fed commentaries. My, bad :)
This activist crap is complete short-termism. They wanted their buybacks now instead of potentially transforming the long-term intrinsic value of the company. If you have the opportunity to double FCF, diversify your asset base, and buy something likely around 3x FCF, you should do it all day long. If WHC gets these mines for US$3.5 B or less, the shares will probably double a year later.
Everyone has a one day to month max time horizon these days. Thank you for the feedback. Heaven forbid a company be a little forward looking.
Excellent write up. Long Indonesian thermal miners.
Thank you! The follow up will help in determining how much of this added capacity will require imports and what type of imports in terms of high CV or low CV thermal coal, or Indonesian spec or Newcastle spec.
Looking forward to it.
Very good analysis.....I will keep my "coal horses" in their stable and well fed. Amazing how, we, the part of the lucky 1.4 billion think the rest of the world should limit their energy usage so we can meet some made up climate goal......welcome to Rome.
Great write up. Really enjoy, and learning a ton. Thanks!