In the spirit of Thanksgiving, I’d like to extend heartfelt gratitude to each one of you. Your support, valuable feedback, and active participation throughout the past 12 months have been truly appreciated. Your engagement has kept me on my toes and has gone a long way in creating a vibrant community dedicated to looking beneath the surface for great ideas and investments.
I also wanted to take this opportunity to share the most read Coal Trader articles from the year:
Metallurgical Producer Comps - a comparison of current earnings forecasts “at the curve” along with a review of anticipated profit margins and EV/EBITDA multiples.
China’s Coal-Fired Future - a comprehensive analysis and review of the energy crisis from 2021 along with the policy response and back of the napkin model of power generation in China.
Indian Infrastructure Boom - an analysis of Indian economic growth and infrastructure investment and why consensus is likely under estimating forward growth.
PRB & US Power Plant Retirements - an analysis of US power plant retirements and the exposure of various producers and mines in the PRB.
Alpha Met Site Visit & Management Meeting - a review and summary of a site visit and meeting with Alpha’s executive team, along with the fundamental outlook for Alpha.
Teck’s attempt at ESG Money Laundering - a quick primer on Teck’s attempt to unload its coal assets yet hold on to most of the cash flows.
Thank you again. I look forward to another year of research, investing, trading and discussion!
I’m almost done with “State of the Coal Markets” write-up, which will be published soon. A lot has happened in the past couple of weeks, and the fundamental supply vs demand balance of the met markets appears far more healthy compared to thermal. I’m going to discuss what’s going on and why we may need to stay clear of thermal if strong winter demand doesn’t materialize.
Please let me know if you have any questions with regards to strategy and positioning, or anything coal related. I try to answer every question.
For those who want more coal analysis and content, check it out here. I’m offering a discount for all TheCoalTrader readers, use code TCT2000 for 15% off the Annual Premium Bundle.
Nothing in this Site constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on this Site constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. The author of this Site is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person's use of or access to this Site or its Content.
Thanks for your really helpful coal analysis over the past year. I seem to have ended up with large holdings in $HCC, $WHC, $AMR and $BTU. There are worse positions to be in.
Thank you for your coal analysis over the past year. It has been really helpful and I seem to have ended up with large positions in