There’s still too much going on in global coal markets to write about, so in today’s edition of The Coal Trader podcast, Joe and I try to unpack China’s newly announced retaliatory tariffs on the U.S.—a direct response to sweeping measures from the Trump administration. The net result is a volatile environment for coal markets, particularly for U.S. exporters navigating rising costs and potentially eroding competitiveness.
A key focus of our discussion is the dramatic reshaping of the global metallurgical coal cost curve. While the U.S. faces upward pressure on input costs from tariffs, the Australian dollar dropped 5% today — a move that gives Australian producers an even greater cost advantage on the seaborne market. Matt explores how mine type and supply chain exposure will determine how severely U.S. producers are hit, and how this shift might accelerate the divergence between domestic and export-facing operations.
The episode also features an AMA-style segment, as Matt and Joe field listener questions on demand signals, pricing mechanics, and how to navigate a market where fundamentals are taking a back seat to geopolitics. With correlations snapping and tape bombs driving sentiment, the message is clear: be cautious, stay adaptive, and keep updating your assumptions in real time.
-MW
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