Reviewing Alpha's Valuation & Outlook

Proforma Review ahead of Q4 2022 Earnings

As we head into Q4 2022 earnings sometime in early March, I thought it prudent to update my financial model on Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) and see how the cash flow situation looks on a go forward basis. I’m particularly intrigued by the prospect of material buybacks on a quarterly basis, and I wanted to see what impact using most of the modeled FCF for buybacks would have on the remaining shares outstanding as we move forward in time.

The Assumptions and Results of my forward estimates for AMR are in the table below: