Earnings Preview - CEIX

Production Slowed in Q2, but Thermal Prices Stronger than Expected

I’ve mentioned in the last few pieces that while BTU 0.00%↑ and AMR 0.00%↑ are absolute beasts to put together, HCC 0.00%↑ is by comparison pretty easy, as it’s just two mines. Well thankfully today’s rundown of tomorrow’s CEIX earnings expectations falls into the latter category (just four mines), although it does have some nuances that need to be accounted for.

First off, let me just point out that I had pretty low expectations for thermal coal markets coming into the year. Domestic and global gas markets were oversupplied, inventories were high, demand wasn’t great…let’s just say there were a lot of issues. But the ongoing AI datacenter buildout narrative has really breathed some life back into future power demand prospects. And the market has actually proven to be tight enough that any buying pressure has resulted in decent prices.

Source: Tradingview

And that price range actually bodes pretty well for CEIX, as they are one of, if not THE lowest cost thermal coal providers into Europe. So with that in mind, let’s dive in and see how close we can get…