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Australian hard coking coal prices were down for the fourth week in a row. Both the FOB Australian index and CFR China index are now priced at $300/mt, down 2% on the week.
WoW: FOB Aus -2.0%, CFR China -2.0%
MoM: Fob Aus -5.1%, CFR China -5.1%
YoY: Fob Aus -17.6%, CFR China -19.8%
Metallurgical price relativities remain widely dispersed, with semi-soft closing the gap slightly and USHVB spreads widening a tad:
Seaborne thermal coal indexes mostly continued bouncing this past week on the back of increased Russian export sanctions, except for Richards Bay which underperformed once again.
WoW: API2 +3.8%, NEWC +0.4%, S. Africa -2.2%
MoM: API2 +15.6%, NEWC +8.3%, S. Africa +7.0%
YoY: API2 -17.8%, NEWC -26.3%, S. Africa -26.1%
Ocean Freight prices diverged this week, with USEC to China rates increasing while US to Europe mostly stabilized.
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CONSOL Trade/Positioning (also linked here)
Met Market Update (also linked here)
Alpha Post-Earnings Thoughts (also linked here)
Alpha Earnings Call Notes (website only, linked here)
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Ramaco Earnings Call Transcript Notes
Ramaco Post-Earnings Thoughts
Launch of The Coal Portfolio. This will be a coal only, long/short, fund which I manage in order to see if I can outperform the new COAL etf. I will allocated according to my Equity Research Assessments for medium and long-term time horizons only. No short term or options trading for this one.
Weekly News & Summary
Here’s the weekly rundown of the most important Coal News and Market information which I’ve curated for free and paid subscribers.
Earnings Updates:
Ramaco Resources Inc (METC) Reports Strong Financial Performance Despite Market Challenges
Adaro Energy Eyes Modest Growth in Coal Sales for 2024 Despite Price Drop
NACCO Industries Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Results
Producers Making Moves:
Coal India’s Gevra Mine set to become Asia’s largest with expansion to 70 million tonnes capacity
Ukraine’s Metinvest Pokrovsk Coal commissions new longwall with reserves of 1 mln tonnes
Met Coal Updates:
China’s Top Coking Coal Miner Calls on State to Control Supply
Indian Steel Mills Slowdown Dampens Seaborne Met Coke Market
China’s met coal prices to weaken before stabilizing in March
Thermal Coal Updates:
Russia Reintroduces Coal Export Duties Adding Pressure to Struggling Exporters
China coal industry doesn’t expect imports to rise this year
India’s coal production growth up 12% MoM & 9% YoY in Feb’24
India urges design changes to import coal-based power plants to use local product
South Africa Thermal Coal Exports up 5% MoM & 27% YoY in Feb’24
Indonesia’s thermal coal exports rise by 7% MoM & 13% YoY in Feb’24
Steel Updates:
Global capacity growth set to ‘flood’ market with higher emissions steel
Downtrend persists in European HRC market; production cuts said necessary to balance supply/demand
US steel industry sees boost from CHIPS Act, infrastructure bills
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Am I here in good company when I write
I ❤️ EVs
after reading your NYT linked piece ?
https://thecoaltrader.com/a-new-surge-in-power-use-is-threatening-u-s-climate-goals/
NYT being NYT hides the real culprit in the article where 95% of it’s readers will no longer read that far because they got distracted by their latest tiktok cat video, so they will only remember that it is the datacenters causing more electricity use. The latter is misleading since it is just a move from people using power intensive PC’s and TV’s to low energy iphones and tv screens, made possible by far more energy efficient data centers serving millions. But the EVs, I call them remote coal fired cars, that makes it possible to compete with oil in the transportation sector; and for that reason, I ❤️ EVs
I really feel like it would be good to focus even more on the cyclicality of this sector, the yearly fluctuations, and the met coal prices.
Of course the future will vary, but it seems there are some patterns. The met coal price seem to dictate stock prices very strongly, the market doesnt care for any long-term projections. I guess we are all a bit shellshocked by the carnage that has taken place the last week...