CEIX puts in strong Q3

Strong Q3 2024 production, more exports and higher q/q Atlantic Basin prices point to an earnings beat

As we get ready for earnings announcements, MSHA mine-level production figures for Q3 2024 have been updated, and we’re working on refreshing our coal company earnings models. We wanted to share a production and EPS update for CEIX, which announces on November 5^th.

In Q3 2024, CEIX had its most productive quarter of the year, extracting 7.28 Mst across its operations (including Itmann), which was a million tons more than in the same quarter last year. It was an even greater increase q/q, with CEIX pumping out 1.6 Mst more than in Q2 2024. In CEIX’s Q2 2024 earnings call, the company said that it only had one longwall move scheduled for the second half of 2024 and was expecting strong production, so we had been forecasting a strong quarter.

After the reopening of ship lanes through Baltimore, we expect that most of the incremental Q3 production headed to the Consol Marine Terminal (CMT), where it made its way overseas to mainly Asian crossover (met) coal customers and North African industrial buyers. We estimate that of the 1.6 Mst quarterly increase in production, nearly 1.4 Mst of that headed to export markets (which are higher margin), and domestic shipments increased by <0.2 Mst q/q. Itmann production was flat at just under 0.9 Mst.